How the Sports Betting Line is Made by RJ Bell
August 25, 2016
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created.
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)
Moving the line is the oddsmaker’s effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football team such as USC. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an “adjusted line.”
What Is the Line Trying to Accomplish?
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a “preliminary” pointspread on an upcoming game.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines.
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. “You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game. If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
How the Opening Line Is Made
Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the betting action, public perception and betting patterns must be taken into account.
Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10). Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years.
Why the Line Changes
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks.
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’). Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.
A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line. Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Reasons for such adjustments include:
Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not.”
For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach.
Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line “feels right.” This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture. . Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team’s power rating are key player injuries and player trades. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team’s most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent.
The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action